Risk factors for disease severity among children with Covid-19: a clinical prediction model.

BACKGROUND: Children account for a significant proportion of COVID-19 hospitalizations, but data on the predictors of disease severity in children are limited. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with moderate/severe COVID-19 and develop a nomogram for predicting children with moderate/severe COVID-19. METHODS: We identified children ≤ 12 years old hospitalized for COVID-19 across five hospitals in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia, from 1 January 2021 to 31 December 2021 from the state's pediatric COVID-19 case registration system. The primary outcome was the development of moderate/severe COVID-19 during hospitalization. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify independent risk factors for moderate/severe COVID-19. A nomogram was constructed to predict moderate/severe disease. The model performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. RESULTS: A total of 1,717 patients were included. After excluding the asymptomatic cases, 1,234 patients (1,023 mild cases and 211 moderate/severe cases) were used to develop the prediction model. Nine independent risk factors were identified, including the presence of at least one comorbidity, shortness of breath, vomiting, diarrhea, rash, seizures, temperature on arrival, chest recessions, and abnormal breath sounds. The nomogram's sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and AUC for predicting moderate/severe COVID-19 were 58·1%, 80·5%, 76·8%, and 0·86 (95% CI, 0·79 - 0·92) respectively. CONCLUSION: Our nomogram, which incorporated readily available clinical parameters, would be useful to facilitate individualized clinical decisions.

Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of children with COVID-19 in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of children with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the state of Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia in the setting of mandatory hospital isolation and quarantine for all confirmed cases. METHODS: A multi-centre, retrospective observational study was performed among children aged ≤12 years with laboratory-proven COVID-19 between 1 February and 31 December 2020. RESULTS: In total, 261 children (48.7% males, 51.3% females) were included in this study. The median age was 6 years [interquartile range (IQR) 3-10 years]. One hundred and fifty-one children (57.9%) were asymptomatic on presentation. Among the symptomatic cases, fever was the most common presenting symptom. Two hundred and forty-one (92.3%) cases were close contacts of infected household or extended family members. Twenty-one (8.4%) cases had abnormal radiological findings. All cases were discharged alive without requiring supplemental oxygen therapy or any specific treatment during hospitalization. The median duration of hospitalization was 7 days (IQR 6-10 days). One (2.1%) of the uninfected guardians accompanying a child in quarantine tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) upon discharge. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 in children was associated with mild symptoms and a good prognosis. Familial clustering was an important epidemiologic feature in the outbreak in Negeri Sembilan. The risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from children to guardians in hospital isolation was minimal despite close proximity.